As I sit thoughtfully, wedged between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, I have a mobile premonition that times are a’changing.
Black Friday may be becoming Cyber Friday - which would mean a dark Monday for many retailers and malls in North America.
On November 28, 2005, Shop.org started discussing an online shopping phenomenon following the Thanksgiving weekend that it coined Cyber Monday. After fighting for sale items in the aisles, shoppers starting surfing the web for remnant deals.
However over the past year, Matt Shay and his team at the National Retail Federation should realizing that the online shopping cloud (that was politely situated on a separate day with separate deals for online shoppers) is now disruptively moving into our primetime shopping calendar.
While most mobile shopping on Black Friday still tends to be mobile marketing focused: Price comparison hunting with Amazon PriceCheck, ShopSavvy or eBay’s Redlazer App; Mobile couponing clipping for show-to-save deals that drive impulse door swing into the mall and retail store.
These shopping APPs and mobile web services are great for hardcore price hunters but the small-screen experience is not optimal. The mobile phone may help the shopper better navigate high value items such as shoes or electronics in their local mall. The mobile phone may steer the shopper to a purchase or may rudely interrupt an in-aisle purchase.
But what is beyond price hunting? If a PriceCheck shows a better deal online, many folk are likely to close their phone and choose to buy the item that evening on the web on a large screen in the comfort of their home.
This is about to change. There is a new breed of shopping disruption entering the market. Apple’s iPad has hybridized:
- mobile & fixed internet
- small screen & large screen
- impulse & thoughtful shopping
Kindle Fire: The Mall Buster
The new commerce-tablet is a portable mall buster. The iPad allows for an elegant portable internet experience, Apple focus continued to be the APP economy and digital checkout on iTunes.
Other tablets have entered the market on Apple’s terms and had mix results . . . until the Amazon’s new tablet Kindle Fire. The Kindle Fire is all about one-click commerce. The device is optimized for in-store, in-mall deal hunting, price comparison and most importantly one-click checkout.
Amazon has always been a commerce disrupter. They battled and beat the book store. Now they are taking on the entire mall.
Amazon reinvented book browsing. In 2007, we saw the first Kindle, the harbinger of a new power game and more importantly a new relationship with the mobile consumer. In order to promote its Kindle device, Amazon sold electronic books below wholesale prices. A tactical loss. Owning the commerce platform was the ultimate reward for Amazon.
Amazon won the book battle: Borders bookstore went out of business and Barnes & Noble opened coffee shops and began selling household furniture.
The Kindle Fire (which combines book commerce with the immersive Kindle experience) is the final commerce frontier. Amazon is so confident in the commerce that they will generate in the mall that they are selling the unit at a loss ($199 while the unit cost is $210).
Amazon’s One-Click commerce along with VISA’s V.me service, Billing Revolution’s Single-Click and a flood of cloud commerce options will enter the market this year.
What does this mean to the great American Black Friday tradition?
It means that shoppers on Friday, November 30th, 2012 may move from comparison price hunting in the mall to disruptive purchasing in the cloud. No longer are Cyber Monday and Black Friday neatly separated: the cloud is in the mall . . . to stay.
We anticipate over 5000 store closings in 2012 – nearly 40% up from 2011. Many of these closings will be due to continuing shopper malaise; however, as in-mall cloud shopping accelerates, stores particularly in the apparel, shoe and electronics vertical will need to reinvent themselves. They will need to focus on breaking down the channel barriers between their online presents and the physical store. Tackling “cross-channel disconnect” will be key to survival.
Stores will need to focus on the non-Black-Friday days – all 364 of them and work to build a loyalty, one-to-one relationship with the shopper using their phones to bridge the store experience with the store’s cloud experience.
Content curation, sensory experience, customer service and love are all the store has. It will not win on price alone.