Mall Busting with Wal-Mart, Facebook & Zappos

Samsung strikes a deal with the beleaguered Best Buy to subsidize their rent with a store-in-a-store initiative. Borders exits the mall and last-man-standing Barnes & Noble seems to becoming a living room chachka vendor with more book browsers than book buyers. Zappos Labs runs field research in malls and Facebook launches a commerce strategy (again).

Is a retail dust bowl about to blow through the mall nationally? Or is this a digital tempest in a tea cup?

We know that online commerce is booming but it still accounts for a small slice of America’s mall business. Undeniably, this $200 billion digital business (ComScore) is expanding scope daily.

If there was ever a digital demarcator, it is the soap business. When Unilever and P&G, the markets main consumer package goods companies, begin to sell soap on Amazon, and when Wal-Mart begins to ramp up its online business, leveraging its 4,000 stories and 158 warehouses as an online distribution network, then mall property owners possibly need to rethink their role in bricks and mortar.

Inertia as a strategy

Malls are entertainment destinations. Always have been. We go to the mall for a movie or latte just as we bundled the family into the Buick 60 years ago to go shopping. But if Best Buy and Barnes & Noble leave the mall, what is left to attract the consumer? Hours of gizmo browsing and cook-book thumbing gone.

Browse-verse-buy business has whittled way the margins of many stores making Blockbuster and Gamestop digital road kill. It forced Target Chief Executive Gregg Steinhafel and Kathee Tesija, Target’s executive vice president of merchandising to cry uncle on “showrooming” in a memo to its suppliers in 2012.

However, muscling your supplier’s prices down is a pharic victory. Even with the volume sales of Target and Wal-Mart know that they need to move some of their business into the cloud. During Wal-Mart’s August 2013 earnings call it announced that eCommerce sales rose by 30 percent in two trailing quarters. Neil Ashe, Wal-Mart’s CEO indicated its total online sales could pass $10 billion in fiscal year 2014.  This is only two percent of the stores earning and only 12 percent of Amazon which sales totaled $61 billion in 2012 but it is a marked trend and a harbinger of the exodus of earns from the mall.

What incumbent stores presently have in their favor is inertia.  The cloud and the mall are still not fluidly connected. Although each shopper is armed with a mobile computer which has the capability of scanning, sourcing and saving the consumer in every aisle, there are too many hurdles and friction between the idea of digital buying and the products within arms reach.

The mandate of any red blooded digital retailers is to eliminate this inertia.

No-click Cloud Checkout

Apple’s iTunes, Amazon and Paypal built their business on simplifying checkout: making sure that the act of buying does not get in the way of intent to buy.

One-click checkout or combining stored customer credentials with a simple password is the sole reason that these companies continue to grow their market share. Their UX team would tell you that every informational and graphic design is based on optimizing clicks to checkout. Each click makes a precipitous drop off and abandoned shopping carts litter the web.

But digital checkout demands trust and mindshare. Even online real estate barons such as Facebook have been unable to enter this market.  Although “Social” and “commerce” seems natural allies, Facebook has not been able to delivered on its promise to leverage its millions of customers to shop cross-channel.  The company launched Facebook Credits in 2009 and phased them out last year. “F-commerce” experiments abound. Remember Facebook + Amazon + P&G partnering in 2010 to change the world. Unilever followed suit launching a storefront on Facebook for its Dove brand. Retailers including JCPenney and Gamestop have attempted to monetize their Facebook community by opening stores inside the Facebook network. After underwhelming results they shut their virtual doors.

Apple and Amazon have proven that community plus one-click checkout works. These digital wallet holders started their business explicitly to sell stuff. And they are poised to remove the inertia from online shopping and with it the last refuge of the mall owner. Online shopping provides advantages with an endless aisle allowing for access to more sizes and categories. According to Nielson the average basket size is much larger for consumer package goods ($80 online to $30 offline) and beauty purchase ($30 online to $10 offline).

The question is that when the households put soap and diapers on their shopping list will they log into Amazon to buy Dove Body Wash 24 Ounce Bottles (Pack of 4) and Pampers Sensitive Wipes 7x Box?

Baked Beans & Apple Pie

The last refuge of the American mall maybe a can of baked beans and fresh produce. If the household shopper wants to grabs a can for dinner tonight or smell the oranges and squeeze the melons before buying, then off to the store they will go. Grocery stores are big box convenience stores.

However, should mall owners that are grocery-anchored feel safe? Their clientele should come from a weekly shopping list.

Well, hold your Kraft peanut butter!

The traditional grocery retailers are faced with increased competition. In March, Wal-Mart opened grocery concept stores about a tenth of the size of their supercenters. With big box and online retailers entering the grocery space, specialty grocers capturing the “foodie culture” consumer and brands creating direct relationship with the consumer, perhaps this is not a safe bet for mall owners.

Google Wallet, ISIS and other phone wallets promise to make in-store shopping more digitally fluid, but what is the digital wallet never makes it to the mall.  Online grocery shopping has grown five fold over the past eight years to $25 billion. Tablets devices have made shopping more leisurely and couch commerce has accelerated.  With CPGs moving their diaper and detergent business into the mainstream online stores like Amazon, the inertia may soon come from the home.

Poaching People

Since Tesco opened their virtual grocery store on the subway in Seoul, Korea two years ago, scan and shop on-the-go signage has become more common. While it is still a media gimmick, it has the potential of becoming a way of luring the shopper online. In every mall or transit hub America at least one brand has attempted to use the in-mall media to engage with the shopper and move them into their cloud store.

In CNET interviews with Zappos Labs’ (an Amazon-owned online retailer) the Director, Will Young, confesses that his team sits around malls stalking shoppers. Their goal is to emulate these shoppers’ behavior online. Young is asking “How can you make the digital experience feel like the in-store experience?”

Whether they succeed or not, there is no question that malls need to re-evaluate their passive media deals. When a brand buys signage on an ad impression basis but uses this media to poach customers then this signage perhaps should not be sold as an impression but as a “mini-storefront”.

Mall owners nationally are holding strategy sessions to evaluate how technology is affecting their business. These stakeholders need to re-evaluate their real estate assets and start to see media as leasable square footage.

Part Two: Mapping the Mall (to be continued)

MultiScreen not Omniscreens or Second-Screen

I strongly believe that the space between the screens that allows the brand to connect their consumer experience is critical. I call this “digital Velcro”.  Connecting your consumer screens seamlessly throughout their day is one of the most important challenges we face.

Additionally, one media experience plus other media screen experience equals a multiple of value to the brand: “1+1=3”  This is not a second screen debate. It is a consumer journey challenge that impacts all brands and retailers in their media buying and engaging. That is why we focus on the MultiScreen not the Omniscreens or Second-Screen discussion.

Next week on Tuesday and Wednesday in NYC I will be hosting the MultiScreen Summit. We incubated this event concept in Los Angeles, last year and have expanded the MultiScreen Summit to include Abu Dhabi and Berlin (which will be held in October). Our goal is to establish a global platform to address the growing needs of business to create a seamless digital experiences across their customers, fans, audiences, shoppers . . . screens.

So who owns this? CIO, CMO and CDO? CIO needs to get together with the CMO and the Chief Digital Officer (CDO) needs to become the Chief Disruptive Office (CDO) making backend process screens work with marketing engagement on the consumer screens.

Data has always been important. In a connect device world with location and behavioral
MultiScreen economy and media strategy will become the most important element tying a brands strategy in place.

The question is: How can buyers think horizontally across their consumer screens and add value to their vertical investments? We need to buy media both vertically and horizontally. Small screen buys need to have native mobile strategy attached that go beyond CPMs and drive mobile conversion goal into the cloud and into the mall.data, this consumer journey is more complex than we had assumed. We now know that we need to work harder to drive real shopper insights and shopper marketing goals. Data tools we can use now include location, screen insights and digital relationship building.

As the MultiScreen Summit Chair, I am so grateful to have such an remarkable group of media thought leaders onstage next week at the MultiScreen Summit, June 11th and 12th.  www.thescreensummit.com.

SCREEN WARS (Digital Media Forum Keynote 2013)

In Dubai talking to agencies and brands about “digital velcro”. How linking content seamlessly between one screen plus other consumer screen equals a multiple of value for a brand.  20  mins – view here.

Mobile Wallet Wars: Winner is the “Final Foot”

As VISA launches the digital wallet V.me, a “digital wallet” in a bid to be relevant in the proliferation of cloud payment credentials, VISA and other incumbent payment providers should be concerned that in a cloud-based economy, it may lose its position in the market.

Presently VISA owns the lion’s share of credit and debit/prepaid plastic in circulation globally. (VISA 2,400MM vs. MasterCard 1,000MM)

Up-starts such as Square and digital innovators such as Paypal are trying to challenge the status quo and change the way people pay with plastic. Google and Apple continue to disintermediate the card vendors by aggregating large volumes of transactions and pass them back to the banks as “prepaid”  with low interchange fees. All in all, new payment players are looking at the old business hegemony of VISA and MasterCard and going OTT (over-the-top).

It is not about eliminating plastic. And it is not really an issue of whether these plastic holders are going the way of vinyl; but more importantly an issue of the business model behind these card and card credentials. Roles are being commoditized.

Cards are simply a way to store and relay banking credentials to the POS in the store and the POS in the cloud. In the US this is no more than a number that is stored on a magnetic swipe and embossed in the plastic. In the rest of the world this number is housed more securely in a chip. A chip that can be emulated securely in the phone chip (or SIM).

It is unlikely that the costly backend systems in the US and Europe that deal with fraud and regulatory issues will be displaced. And that the 2,400MM VISA cards and the 1,000MM MasterCard that use these systems will disappear. (*)

However, as VISA and MasterCard continue to be the trusted brands on every online and physical store they may find that their margins dipping. As banks try to revamp their mobile banking applications and ATMs to be more relevant to their peripatetic customer, fewer value added fees and services will impact their margins.

The question to ask is who owns the customers relationship because it is ultimately this relationship (the final foot) that they can monetize. The emergence of mobile and card-linked offers is making the point-of-sale systems in the cloud and eventually in the store, the new promotional depots for digital deals and coupons. So called “big data” and value added services will ultimately yield the most profit.

*(In emerging markets, where there little infrastructure, companies like M-Pesa service the unbanked via their mobile phone account. VISA has entered these emerging markets through acquisition of Fundamo and MasterCard through a partnership with Telefónica. Similar to the US, these companies are vying for the last-mile relationship.)

10 mobile predictions for 2013 in under 75 words

1.      Substitute “Mobile” for more inclusive term “CONNECTED SCREENS
2.      Geo-LOCATION crucial to social strategy
3.      NFC continues to be far field
4.      For RETAIL: space between bricks and clicks most valuable
5.      For everyone: space CONNECTING screens most valuable
6.      Mobile viruses push SECURITY agenda
7.      More PRIVACY transgressions, More PRIVACY protection
8.      ANDROID increase the lead in a 3 horse race
9.      Operator CAPACITY drives new business models
10.  Through-The-Middle (TTM) services counter OTT

Why Square’s Giftcards are essential for its wallet strategy

Square’s business model is successful but needs accelerated growth in 2013. If Mr. Dorsey can shake the trees in the prepaid world, he can expand his business significantly.

Prepaid gift cards are a valuable strategy for Square for two key reasons:

  • One is growth – a digital gift card is viral and thus expands Square’s influence horizontally. And Square wants more users. Now a viral nudge will lead a friend to download a free Square Wallet from the Apple App Store or Google Play.
  • Secondly, is margin – Square plans to disrupt the incumbent gift card issuing fees with a low 2.75 percent charge. Given there is no high bank interchange on prepaid, Square can reap a healthy margin.

Key to adoption on the small screen will be the user experience – especially with a viral gift product. As Jack Dorsey says, “This is a product where the experience really matters.”

A Square user can search for nearby businesses, click to buy a gift card and enter the recipient’s email address. The recipient (benefactor) can download the Square Wallet app (Square’s preferred outcome) or save Square gift cards to Apple’s new Passbook app.

The success of the gift card strategy may be dependent on Square being able to sign up additional big name merchants such as Starbucks, which began accepting payments via Square Wallet this fall. But Square will have a hard time finding another commerce partner like Starbucks. As I like to say you can successfully sell an addictive substance – coffee – on every street corner in America.

It is harder for other retailers. With a close-loop gift card you need partners with scale.

 

Why Apple’s New Patents are Commerce Game Changers?

This week Apple added a new patent (US 8,321,294) to its war chest.  The EasyPay patent is worth a closer look. The commerce patent allows mobile shoppers to activate and buy items from physical stores via the Internet connection on their device.

While this seems pretty clear and reflects Apple’s EasyPay trials:  it is far more profound. Combined with Apple’s earlier patent (US 8,290,513) in October using magnetic fields (as a substitute to NFC) this is clearly is Apple’s showrooming and mobile commerce positioning statement.

Why are these two patents so interesting? One, while the EasyPay trail used QR codes, the new patent definition of shopper is far broader:

“Techniques for improved interaction between online retailers and traditional brick-and-mortar retailers that provide patron-accessible networks are disclosed. The location and/or the fact that any given purchase was made from a particular retailer’s patron-accessible network can be tracked for a variety of purposes. The invention can facilitate partnering between online retailers (i.e. online stores) and traditional ‘brick-and-mortar’ business establishments. As an example, the invention can be used to track and give credit for online purchases at an online retailer that are facilitated by a brick-and-mortar retailer.”

Now combine the two patents. The earlier Apple patent in October was for a Method and Apparatus for Triggering Network Device Discovery. This was Apple way of side stepping NFC and using the phones’ compass output patterns (magnetic field signatures).

EasyPay can be expanded to leverage any network device discovery.  This allows any store shelf or walk-by media to be activated via a magnetic field tap and jump into an EasyPay checkout process. Path-to-purchase becomes “PURCHASE”.

Mobile, Dating & George Costanza in 100-degree NYC



Gary Schwartz, author of The Impulse Economy and the upcoming book: FAST SHOPPER . SLOW STORE, braved the 100-degree New York weather to speak about the origins and future of impulse purchases and how mobile feeds into it.

The crowd – who found out about the Direct Marketing Association (DMA) FlashCon through Twitter and Facebook – were entertained and educated by tales of dating, gumball machines, and George Costanza! Here is some of the street fair: The full versions of both this FlashCon and Gary’s interview back at DMA HQ with Paul McDonnough are now available on the DMA’s YouTube channel.

Privacy vs. Data: How to build consumer trust?

By Gary Schwartz

The way we define the term privacy is subjective. In the United States, we police privacy based on a very broad definition under Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act that prohibits “unfair or deceptive acts or practices in or affecting commerce.” The devil is in the policy details.

If the news headlines over the past few months are any indication, we are mighty confused with what to call private and what to call public, what to sanction and what not to sanction. How can we start to solve small-screen privacy when we have not solved our digital angst on the desktop?

Jules Polonetsky, director of the Future of Privacy Forum, says that when the browser invariably crashes it pops up a commiserating dialogue box asking you permission to send the diagnostic report to the browser company anonymously to help them fix bugs and build a better browser.

Faced with this privacy brief, only 3 percent of users click “Yes.”

Digital natives

Is it because we are digital immigrates? Our children happily offer data everyday about personal activity without hesitation.

Is the challenge simplifying the legal narrative to allow consumers to make an informed decision without interrupting their next click on the small screen? It seems an improbable feat.

In March, the Federal Trade Commission issued a report on best practices for businesses collecting personal data called “Protecting Consumer Privacy in an Era of Rapid Change: Recommendations For Businesses and Policymakers.”

The FTC, which is taking a proactive lead on privacy in the beltway, seems cognizant that it needs to create a flexible framework to best interpret what is unfair or deceptive in Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act.

CONTINUE TO READ FULL ARTICLE HERE

Dealing with Mobile Consumer Trust on April 24th

We are all excited about the potential for mobile wallets in the store and the cloud. The consumer can click permission for mobile services to track their location and scrape their social graph. These services allow for shopping and social convenience.  They allow for seamless, frictionless, realtime interaction with brands and retailers.

There however is an unwritten balance between convenience and trust. When does an location-based application like Highlight move from helping to spooking the would-be social consumer?

On April 24th in DC, join me to discuss how to build a consumer friendly ecosystem that is not dictated by legislation but rather by best practices, transparency and user-friendly signs for the consumer of the services.

There are high stakes. If the industry is not proactive in addressing this crucial issue, the fallout will be costly. Juniper Research recently stated that over $74 billion worth of contactless transactions will occur in three years and the privacy and security issues could cost billions.

Top high-level executives from leading online/mobile companies, content players, ad agencies and governmental agencies will gather to discuss the pressing privacy and security issues facing M-commerce and M-content.

MEF’s Mobile Commerce and Content Privacy Summit

When: April 24, 2012 from 2pm to 6pm, with a reception following
Where: 
SNR Denton’s DC Offices – Penthouse Suite 1301 K St NW Washington, D.C

For more information or to RSVP, please contact: Marjorie DeHey, GM MEF – North America