Premature Technology Arousal (PTA) in Barcelona

Posted on March 4, 2013 by Gary Schwartz

To sum up Mobile World Congress 2013, I will borrow from Peter Marx, head of business development at Qualcomm Labs. Peter talks about a tendency for PTA or (for those in the know) Premature Technology Arousal in the mobile industry.

Much of the MWC 2013 floor area at the new Fira Gran Via venue exhibited PTA or Premature Technology Arousal. Solutions that are excited about being solutions. Solutions that are too early. Solutions that are missing reach and frequency. Things that are just not simple enough to drive adoption.

Even before 70 thousand executives hit the show floor, there were signs of “PTA”. From the Near Field Communications (NFC) show name tags that tried to emulated plastic (but that few used because you still needed to show the plastic) to tapping on Coke dispensers with cloud-base wallets that are many quarters away for mainstream adoption.

Booth after booth in this 1.01 million square feet techno-playground displayed incredible solutions and screens. But the real story to follow was how each solution quietly added value to a given business ecosystem. There was an invisible hand playing connect the dots. Here are a few examples:

The Invisible Google Hand

Google was almost absent – unlike the MWC of 2011 and 2012 where Google groupies ran from partner booth to partner booth in search of cute Android pins. But Google was most definitely on the floor. This year the company is wisely playing “powered by Google”. They are the dark silent type. Turn left or right in every hall, Android is the fuel this industry is consuming.

The same holds for Qualcomm. They are the chip manufacture that is quietly taking the lion’s share of the revenue on each global handset. (Intel just cannot seem to create a competitive landscape.) Qualcomm Labs is building in consumer identity and credentials onto its “platform” hoping to not only power the connected device but also own the big data behind the user. When Qualcomm demos a vision of a home of the near future, they power many of the moving pieces.

The Samsung Show

While Qualcomm’s chip and Google’s OS were the main stories in Barcelona, another key and not so silent player is Samsung. (So much so that my hotel concierge asked me if I was attending that “Samsung” show that was in town.) The word that floated above the white new-age Samsung booth was “innovation” but the innovation is not just the 3D camera or the ubiquity of the new S-Pen. The innovation was in their business model connecting their screen across the consumer journey. The 3D camera sells their tablet and television. The S-Pen and its SDK allows for ergonomic continuity across their new tablets and fablets.

Mozilla is other important story in Barcelona. Using the Firefox browser on lower-end ZTE devices to run the camera, map and . . . oh ya the browser was a definite tech-turn on. Moving the developer and more importantly the consumer out of the (Apple-invented and dominated) app store into the real world super-app is an inevitable step and fundamental to our mobile evolution. The quicker the industry can move away for relying exclusively on industrial design and the app storefront as the sales tool, the faster we will grow.

2014 Screen Wars

The most important leitmotif was the screen. Not only the proliferation of devices with new form factor and appliance, but the realization that it is in the connecting of these screen that the we can accelerate business models. Samsung, ZTE, Motorola, Nokia all address the consumer journey across all screens and throughout their day. Nearly all marketing VPs had spent their last few months and budget trying to tell this consumer story.

Again while many products had indecent “PTA”, the most important insight was not what was happening on the screen but what companies were doing to connect them seamlessly. The new battle ground this year moving into MWC 2014 will be centered around who can best manage big data, wallet credentials and identity between the screens.

Barcelona In Brief: Qualcomm, Samsung & Mozilla (BNN Interview)

Posted on March 1, 2013 by Gary Schwartz

Watch here. (6 mins)

Mobile Wallet Wars: Winner is the “Final Foot”

Posted on February 14, 2013 by Gary Schwartz

As VISA launches the digital wallet V.me, a “digital wallet” in a bid to be relevant in the proliferation of cloud payment credentials, VISA and other incumbent payment providers should be concerned that in a cloud-based economy, it may lose its position in the market.

Presently VISA owns the lion’s share of credit and debit/prepaid plastic in circulation globally. (VISA 2,400MM vs. MasterCard 1,000MM)

Up-starts such as Square and digital innovators such as Paypal are trying to challenge the status quo and change the way people pay with plastic. Google and Apple continue to disintermediate the card vendors by aggregating large volumes of transactions and pass them back to the banks as “prepaid” with low interchange fees. All in all, new payment players are looking at the old business hegemony of VISA and MasterCard and going OTT (over-the-top).

It is not about eliminating plastic. And it is not really an issue of whether these plastic holders are going the way of vinyl; but more importantly an issue of the business model behind these card and card credentials. Roles are being commoditized.

Cards are simply a way to store and relay banking credentials to the POS in the store and the POS in the cloud. In the US this is no more than a number that is stored on a magnetic swipe and embossed in the plastic. In the rest of the world this number is housed more securely in a chip. A chip that can be emulated securely in the phone chip (or SIM).

It is unlikely that the costly backend systems in the US and Europe that deal with fraud and regulatory issues will be displaced. And that the 2,400MM VISA cards and the 1,000MM MasterCard that use these systems will disappear. (*)

However, as VISA and MasterCard continue to be the trusted brands on every online and physical store they may find that their margins dipping. As banks try to revamp their mobile banking applications and ATMs to be more relevant to their peripatetic customer, fewer value added fees and services will impact their margins.

The question to ask is who owns the customers relationship because it is ultimately this relationship (the final foot) that they can monetize. The emergence of mobile and card-linked offers is making the point-of-sale systems in the cloud and eventually in the store, the new promotional depots for digital deals and coupons. So called “big data” and value added services will ultimately yield the most profit.

*(In emerging markets, where there little infrastructure, companies like M-Pesa service the unbanked via their mobile phone account. VISA has entered these emerging markets through acquisition of Fundamo and MasterCard through a partnership with Telefónica. Similar to the US, these companies are vying for the last-mile relationship.)

The End of Pennies & Amazon Coins from the Cloud

Posted on February 12, 2013 by Gary Schwartz

With the Canadian Mint abandoning the mighty penny and Amazon creating its own digital currency system called Amazon Coins (to be used to purchase apps in its Kindle Fire Tablet), where is cash heading?

In May, Amazon Coins will flood the market with “tens of millions of dollars” of virtual coins. The Canadian mint will remove the equivalent in copper. This value transfer from cash coins to promotional coins is not connected but illustrative of the value of currency to drive engagement and what is often referred to as “big data.”

The penny and the dollar have not lost their value in our digital economy (*) but the ability for the data behind our purchase behavior may yield more value.

How we buy has changed so profoundly over the past few decades. Money and path to purchase has become more fluid. Days waiting for cash to clear is now instantaneous. Digital credentials such as Paypal and Paypass allow for seamless payments inconceivable few years ago.

We know that financial institutions and the new mobile wallets snub their nose at cash and hope that all transactions move through their gateway and pay a service toll. But more importantly for the Google’s and Apple’s wallets to tether a digital relationship that allows for incremental advertising and engagement opportunities.

As we move into digital wallets in the cloud and the store, look for more “Amazon” pennies from heaven. Or in this case, from the cloud.

* (Cash is a clumsy system and removing pennies can upset the countries cash register. In 1971 the penny was axed in the UK. Cash confusion and many retail that were accused of rounding up rather than down allowed price increases that pundits attributed to increased inflation in the country for a quarter of a century. By the 70s, inflation was upward of 25%.)

Mobile Retail Focus for 2013? (60min Business World interview)

Posted on December 21, 2012 by Gary Schwartz

In the following interview I discuss with Wayne Hurlbert, the preeminent business blogger (Blog Business World), that retailers need to embrace new strategies to reconnect with their customers. We discuss:

Strategies to win back customers who have left the malls, big box, and other retail outlets for their mobile devices.
How the behavior of mobile shoppers is different from both tethered online customers and from the traditional in store consumer.
Techniques for winning back those customers, reconnecting with them, and regaining their long term loyalty.
How to embrace mobile technology as a competitive advantage for your business, and place yourself in the forefront of the mobile shopping revolution.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/FastShopper

10 mobile predictions for 2013 in under 75 words

Posted on December 17, 2012 by Gary Schwartz

1.      Substitute “Mobile” for more inclusive term “CONNECTED SCREENS”
2.      Geo-LOCATION crucial to social strategy
3.      NFC continues to be far field
4.      For RETAIL: space between bricks and clicks most valuable
5.      For everyone: space CONNECTING screens most valuable
6.      Mobile viruses push SECURITY agenda
7.      More PRIVACY transgressions, More PRIVACY protection
8.      ANDROID increase the lead in a 3 horse race
9. Operator CAPACITY drives new business models
10. Through-The-Middle (TTM) services counter OTT

Is Facebook suddenly a 13x ROI ad network?

Posted on November 28, 2012 by Gary Schwartz

Facebook in 2012 had a hard time convincing the retail market that it was a mobile commerce player. Facebook opened storefronts with GameStop and others retail partners. They should have been a success. However, all languished and were closed over the course of the storefront trial.

While Facebook may not be the destination that users go to shop, it has proven its value as the preeminent social “influencer” of commerce. Today’s Samsung results vindicate the network and all doubters.

After a three-week, $10 million ad buy with Facebook, Samsung reached over 100 million unique users and generated $129 million in sales! That is a 13x return on a $10 million ad buy.

While these numbers are powerful testament to the social shopping behaviour on the web. Samsung has more than 20 million fans on Facebook and needed to find ways influence their buying decisions. SALES not LIKES drive profits!

Coming out of the tremendous results from Cyber Monday, we know that somewhere advertising and commerce needs to find a closer connection. The market is still in the pursue of a way for sales-driving networks like Facebook (in the advertising world) to connect more seamlessly to commerce conversion network (in the retail world).

PayPal reported a 200% increase in transactions through this past weekend. If Facebook’s reach could be married to a “one-click commerce” checkout, this 13x conversion rate may jump a significant multiple.

In a world where “path to purchase” is a perilous path and we need find ways to better connect these two worlds.

Mobile, Dating & George Costanza in 100-degree NYC

Posted on June 21, 2012 by Gary Schwartz

Gary Schwartz, author of The Impulse Economy and the upcoming book: FAST SHOPPER . SLOW STORE, braved the 100-degree New York weather to speak about the origins and future of impulse purchases and how mobile feeds into it.

The crowd – who found out about the Direct Marketing Association (DMA) FlashCon through Twitter and Facebook – were entertained and educated by tales of dating, gumball machines, and George Costanza! Here is some of the street fair: The full versions of both this FlashCon and Gary’s interview back at DMA HQ with Paul McDonnough are now available on the DMA’s YouTube channel.

2012 Primary: Changing the Game in Retail “Politics”

Posted on March 25, 2012 by Gary Schwartz

Just as brands increasingly strive to establish long-term relationships with consumers, U.S. presidential candidates need to change their tactics to more permanently engage a media-driven and mobile citizenry.

It is always at this juncture in the primaries, when candidates are clawing for last-minute positioning, that it becomes transparent to the public that the election process is eerily similar to selling a product in a hugely competitive retail market.

All the techniques that Proctor & Gamble or Coca Cola use to market their products and drive sales are (if unnaturally) the same as those embraced by the candidates in the 2012 presidential election.

It is an interesting comparison. Let’s break down the retail ecosystem from manufacturing to final sale. Products are bought based on their function (or the service that they deliver), brand recall, brand loyalty, convenience, and, of course, price.

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE